平井 敬

Development of coastal areas in Japan for various land uses since the 1960s has contributed to industrial upgrades and improved the efficiency of transportation networks. However, there are concerns about the vulnerability of developments on alluvial plains and reclaimed lands to geological events, like ground subsidence due to liquefaction during large earthquakes. Realistic assessment of earthquake and tsunami hazards and evaluation of possible countermeasures require accurate estimation of the amount of subsidence that can be expected from liquefaction at coastal and riverside sites supporting various structures. In this study, to evaluate the amount a river embankment structure might be expected to settle as a result of strong motion from an assumed Nankai Trough great earthquake, we conducted a numerical simulation using the soil–water coupled finite deformation analysis code GEOASIA. We then investigated the effect of the estimated embankment subsidence on tsunami inundation, which was simulated by using nonlinear shallow-water equations and a grid spacing as fine as 3.3 m. The influence of urban structures on the inundated area was taken into account by using a structure-embedded elevation model (SEM). The results showed that subsidence of river embankments and the collapse of parapet walls on top of them would increase both the depth and area of inundation caused by a tsunami triggered by a Nankai Trough scenario earthquake. Our findings underscore the importance of evaluating not only earthquake resistance but also vulnerability of coastal and riverside structures to strong motion in tsunami hazard analyses. Furthermore, the importance of tsunami inundation analysis using a SEM for predicting the behavior of tsunami flotsam in urban areas was demonstrated.