藤野 正之

OBJECTIVES: The Gunma score is used to predict the severity of Kawasaki disease (KD), including coronary artery aneurysm (CAA) as a cardiac complication, in Japan. Additionally, the characteristic ratio of ventricular repolarization (T-peak to T-end interval to QT interval [Tp-e/QT]) on a surface electrocardiogram reflects myocardial inflammation. This study aimed to determine whether the Tp-e/QT can be used to predict CAA in children with KD. METHODS: We analyzed chest surface electrocardiograms of 112 children with KD before receiving intravenous immunoglobulin therapy using available software (QTD; Fukuda Denshi, Tokyo, Japan). RESULTS: The Tp-e/QT (lead V5) was positively correlated with the Gunma score (r=0.352, p<0.001). The Tp-e/QT was larger in patients with CAA (residual CAA at 1 month after onset) than in those without CAA (0.314±0.026 versus 0.253±0.044, p=0.003). A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to assess whether the Gunma score and Tp-e/QT could predict subsequent CAA. The area under the curve of the Gunma score was 0.719 with the cutoff set at 5 points. The area under the curve of the Tp-e/QT was 0.892 with a cutoff value of 0.299. The fit of the prediction models to the observed probability was tested by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test with calibration plots using Locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) fit. The Gunma score (p=0.95) and Tp-e/QT (p=0.95) showed a good fit. CONCLUSIONS: The Tp-e/QT is a useful biomarker in predicting coronary aneurysm complications in KD.