田中 茉莉子

The purpose of this article is to explore to what extent spillovers from Asian financial market shocks have risen during the past two decades. In the first part, we examine spillover effects in stock markets. Estimating the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, we find that spillover effects from emerging Asia became large in the post Global Financial Crisis (GFC) period. However, we also find that most of the spillover effects were from shocks in the manufacturing sector rather than from those in the financial sector. This implies that the spillover effects increased in the post GFC period because of increased manufacturing sector's shocks in emerging Asia. In the second part, we examine spillover effects across different foreign exchange rates. As in the stock markets, spillover effects from emerging Asia became large in the foreign exchange markets in the post GFC period. In particular, our high frequency data analysis suggests that an exchange rate policy change by the the People's Bank of China (PBC) had positive spillover effects on most of the advanced currencies in the post GFC period. The empirical results imply that the impact of Chinese shocks has been rising in the global financial markets.

This paper studies how endogenous currency exchange arises in a two-country, two-currency monetary search model. Although currency exchange is widely observed in the globalized economy, Zhou (1997) is one of the exceptional studies that adopted a search model to generate currency exchange endogenously. Moreover, in her model, currency exchange occurs only in the case where agents rarely consume foreign goods, which is contrary to the well-known fact that international trade increases the number of currency exchanges. We construct a monetary search model that has a feature that increased international trade increases the volume of currency exchange. We develop a two-country model in which each country has two types of agents: local traders who consume only the goods produced in the home country, and international traders who consume only the goods produced in the foreign country. For international traders, the foreign currency gives more opportunity to obtain the foreign goods than the home currency does. Thus, when an international trader holds the home currency, he has an incentive to exchange the home currency for the foreign currency. Unlike Zhou, the model has a feature that currency exchange is more likely to occur when many agents are engaged in international trade.