瀬古 美喜

This study analyzes the rent term premium for leases that can be cancelled by the lessee. We model the lessor's trade-off between leasing costs and the cost of cancellation options based on the recognition that many leases are cancellable by lessees, and lease markets involve significant transaction costs. We demonstrate that, regardless of the expected future rents, the rent term structure is upward-sloping when there is no leasing cost but U-shaped when the lessor faces moderate leasing costs. Residential leases in Japan, which are all cancellable by tenants, exhibit the term structure that is consistent with our calibrated model.

The destructive impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent tsunami on March 11, 2011 has enhanced consumer's earthquake preparedness even in unaffected areas. This paper uses unique survey data collected after the earthquake to study how consumers reacted to this catastrophic event. We find that self-reported, perceived preparedness for natural disasters has significantly improved even among low-income households after March 11, but that post-quake intentions for more specific risk mitigation activities were systematically associated with household income and wealth levels. Our results indicate that the recent events might have widened the gap in disaster preparedness between rich and poor.

This paper draws on six waves of Japanese household longitudinal data (Keio Household Panel Survey, KHPS) and estimates a conditional fixed effects logit model to investigate the effects of housing equity constraints and income shocks on own-to-own residential moves in Japan. By looking at contemporaneous extended Loan-to-Value (ELTV) and extended Debt-to-Income (EDTI) ratios under the recourse loan system, we examine whether housing equity constraints and negative income shocks have any impact on own-to-own residential moves. Taking account of the specific nature of the recourse loan system in Japan, we further investigate whether these effects are different between positive and negative equity households. The estimation results show that housing equity constraints and negative income shocks significantly deter own-to-own residential moves for positive equity households.

A theoretical framework and empirical evidence are presented to show the connection between community uniform rating and cross-subsidies in earthquake insurance policy in Japan. Cross-subsidies are defined as the difference between a fair actuarial premium and the community uniform rate. The estimation result shows that the uniform community rating may unintentionally cross-subsidize inhabitants in high risk areas at the expense of inhabitants in low risk areas. Our simulation results indicate that replacing the current community rating with the fair actuarial premium would increase the overall subscription rate for earthquake insurance by about 3.7 percentage point, and that the increase is particularly prominent in relatively less risky areas. We propose modifying the Japanese earthquake insurance system by adopting a more refined risk rating system that more closely reflects regional differences in earthquake risk.

The hedonic pricing approach is used to examine whether homeowners and/or renters alter their subjective assessments of earthquake risks after massive earthquakes. Using nation-wide household panel data coupled with earthquake hazard information and records of observed earthquakes, we find that there are some modifications of individuals' assessments of earthquake risk in both cases. We have carefully taken into consideration the bias stemming from the use of objective risk variables as a proxy for individual risk assessments. Our results Suggest that the price discount from locating within a quake-prone area is significantly larger soon after earthquake events than beforehand. We argue that the most likely interpretation for this result is that households tend to underestimate earthquake risk if there has not been a recent occurrence. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Japan is famous for its earthquakes. How do households and firms respond to this potentially devastating risk? How does earthquake risk affect housing costs and wages? To answer these questions, we construct a Quality of Life Index (QOLI) and estimate the social cost of earthquake risk among cities/counties in Japan. The regional QOLI is obtained through estimating the hedonic wage and housing rent regressions using household longitudinal data covering all Japan. From the estimated results, we find that earthquake risk has a significant impact on the overall quality of life in Japanese prefectures, and that there are large city/county differences in terms of the social cost of earthquake risk. Finally, we argue that the large regional variation in the social cost of earthquakes arises from earthquake insurance market imperfections - crude and rough geographical risk rating - and propose a possible remedy for enhancing earthquake insurance risk assessment. © 2007 Taylor &amp Francis.

A new mode of housing tenure in Japan, rental housing with fixed rental terms, was introduced in March 2000 with the revision of the Japanese Tenant Protection Law. This paper examines the implications of this new system by analyzing the determinants of the choices by households among the three types of housing tenure in Japan: owned housing, general rental housing, and rental housing with fixed rental terms, and calculates the estimated compensating variation. Our micro-data is based on the three waves of Japanese household longitudinal data (Keio Household Panel Survey, KHPS) covering all of Japan. The difference between general rental housing and rental housing with fixed rental terms is reflected in the length of the contract term and the level of rent. We carefully eliminate potential sample selection bias introduced to the conditional logit housing tenure choice model through the estimation of the hedonic price regression of each housing tenure alternative. We find that households with a smaller number of family members, those who moved from outside the local housing market, those headed by an unmarried household head, and those with plans to own a house in the near future tend to select rental housing with fixed rental terms. The estimated mean compensating variation by introducing rental housing with fixed rental terms for all households selecting that tenure is 1,205 JPY per month or 1.96% of their monthly rent. Moreover, younger and/or lower income households derived the greatest benefit from the revised law in the form of lower rents.

This paper draws on three waves of Japan household longitudinal data (Keio Household Panel Survey, KHPS) and estimates a proportional hazard model to investigate the effects of two distinctive polices in Japan that influence residential moves. One is,the implementation of an income tax deduction system in 2004 for the carrying over of capital losses for owner-occupied households and the other is the Japan Rental Act for renter households. The tax policy was devised to cope with the severe equity constraints that followed the bursting of Japan's asset Bubble in the early 1990s. The Rental Act (1921, amended in 1941) provides renters protection from eviction and is the basis for a court arbitrated rent control system. We examine the effect of this rent control system on residential mobility based on an estimate of the implicit subsidy resulting from the Rental Act. We find that both government policies have a strong impact on residential mobility. The implementation of an income tax deduction system linked to capital losses increases owners' mobility, especially for those households with a large LTV (Loan to Value Ratio). (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

This is the first study to apply to Japanese housing data the econometric analysis of piecewise-linear budget constraints arising from space-linked subsidized interest rates. The floor space demand model employed is the classical Hausman-type with random preferences and optimization errors. We estimate that if the Japan Housing Loan Corporation (JHLC) loan system operated like a private lending institution, it would eliminate the current excess burden per household of approximately 9% of the average JHLC credit subsidy of a home. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

National housing markets differ in many aspects, making cross-national studies a fascinating subject. This article sheds light on housing demand in Germany and Japan. The primary task undertaken is to separate crossnational differences in the structure of housing demand by differing preferences and differing socioeconomic characteristics, exploiting the available crosscountry variation in survey data from both countries. This study features the application of a mixed logit model that allows for a flexible substitution pattern among unobservable characteristics. This is an important feature in a comparison between countries since so many cultural and policy differences are impossible to model precisely. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science.

This paper develops and estimates a model of Japanese aggregate homeownership rates using annual data for 1958-78 to study the determinants of owner-occupancy rates as well as the effect of inflation on housing tenure choice.<br>We construct the relative prices of owned and rented housing based on the Japanese system.<br>The estimated results suggest that the capital market is imperfect and also that changes in the Japanese aggregate homeownership rates after 1958 are greatly influenced by demographic and social factors.