Nakajima Kazunori

Abstract In this study, a web‐based questionnaire was sent to residents of the Kinki region in the westside of Japan (N = 1053), and a multinomial logit analysis was conducted according to their isolation and loneliness status to examine social prescriptions that would presumably contribute to the prevention of isolation and loneliness. By comparing the marginal effects of social prescriptions on those with four types of isolation and loneliness status through the discrete choice model, we discovered that social prescriptions that contribute to the prevention of isolation and loneliness differ according to individuals by isolation and loneliness status. For example, for those who are not isolated but lonely, an effective strategy would be to encourage involvement in social contribution activities in the community and form high‐quality human relationships expecting to alleviate loneliness. The results also showed that residents in isolated situations tend to be indifferent to social contribution activities and social prescriptions to encourage involvement in such activities have limitations.

In this study, we conducted a Web-based questionnaire survey targeting residents of the Kinki region (N=1053). By comparing the marginal effects by leveraging a multinomial logistical regression based on states of isolated and/or loneliness, we searched for a spatial prescription that contributes to the prevention of feelings of isolated and loneliness. Especially, by comparing the marginal effect as a numerical value according to the circumstances of the loneliness and isolation situation, it was observed that a spatial prescription which contributes to the prevention of solitude and isolation existed.

To measure economic effects of changes in environmental quality caused by climate change in Japan, we estimate beach loss damage costs in Japan and in each prefecture and evaluate the economic effectiveness of hypothetical adaptation measures to restore sandy beaches. For analyses, we use a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) that integrates a utility function with environmental quality factors as an independent variable derived from a recreation demand function in a travel cost method (TCM). We use future projections of beach loss rates in 2081–2100 based on ensemble-mean regional sea-level rise (SLR) for four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The main findings of our study are presented as follows. (1) In 2081–2100, beach loss damage costs were estimated respectively as 398.54 million USD per year for RCP2.6, 468.96 (m.USD/year) for RCP4.5, 494.09 (m.USD/year) for RCP6.0, and 654.63 (m.USD/year) for RCP8.5. (2) For all RCPs, six prefectures for which the cost–benefit ratio exceeds 1.0 were Kanagawa, Osaka, Hyogo, Hiroshima, Saga, and Kumamoto. Our hypothetical adaptation measure of an artificial beach enhancement is expected to be quite effective as a public works project in these prefectures.

<p> In order to consider theoretically-consistent value of a statistical life (VSL) for a mortality risk, we conduct the happiness survey through the internet-based questionnaire survey, estimate a happiness function using an ordered response model, and measure some VSLs according to attributes. The findings in this study are shown below. (1) When measured by age, as shown by earlier studies, VSL increased in direct proportion to age 20s, 30s, 40s and 50s, but it decreased in age 60s. VSL were found to be the inverse U-shape. (2) In case that the value of a constant relative risk aversion was 1 (logarithm utility function), the average VSL was estimated as about 6.912 million yen. On the other hand, in case that the value of a constant relative risk aversion was 1.260, the average VSL was estimated as about 73.521 million yen. (3) It implies that some of attributes (e.g., with or without children, grandchildren, or spouse, the number of households, and residential area) had impacts on VSL.</p>

&nbsp;This study examines the statistical causal relationship between recent chronic decreasing of skiing visitors and global warming. Concretely speaking, paying attention to the number of skiing visitors in Nagano Prefectures from 2006 to 2017, candidates of explanatory variables are extracted by usual OLS with time series data sets of several ski areas. Subsequently, with pooling data for each prefecture, we engage in panel data analysis and decompose it into the factor of climate change and the others. As the results, the annual change rate of skiing visitors due to total factor, the one due to climate change, and the one due to other reasons are -2.95%, 0.46%, and -3.41% respectably for Nagano. These findings show that decreasing of skiing visitors in this term stemmed largely from social reasons other than climate change and that the weather rather mitigated slightly the decline.

&nbsp;In order to measure the economic impact of changes in environmental quality due to climate change in Japan, by using a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) that integrates a utility function that has an environmental quality factor as an independent variable derived from a recreation demand function in a travel cost method (TCM), we aim to estimate the damage cost of beach erosion in each prefecture and in Japan and to evaluate economic effectiveness of hypothetical adaptation measure to restore sandy beach. We use the future projections of beach erosion rates calculated by 2 periods (2031-2050 and 2081-2100), 3 RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and 3 climate models (MIROC5, MRI-CGCM3 and HadGEM2-ES), respectively. Also, we assume the average adaptation cost per unit area to be 21,596 JPY per square meter. The main findings in our study are shown as follows. 1) In the RCP8.5, the damage costs of beach erosion were estimated to be from 17.4 million yen per year to 25.2 yen per year in 2031-2050 and from 61.5 million yen per year to 64.4 million yen per year in 2081-2100, respectively. 2) In all periods, all RCPs and all climate models, four prefectures that the cost benefit ratio exceeds 1.0 were Kanagawa, Osaka, Saga and Kumamoto.

&nbsp;In order to examine the economic impact of the damage due to the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 and the reconstruction of the disaster-stricken areas and all prefectures, this study aims to develop a dynamic spatial computable general equilibrium model. This model describes the economic dynamics of the damage caused by the earthquake, the resulting reconstructions, and measures the dynamic benefits of reconstruction by using numerical simulations. The findings of this study are as follows: (1) The discounted present value of the dynamic damage cost along with reconstruction from the earthquake was estimated to decrease to about 17.9 trillion yen in total, which was 1.29 times greater than decreases in the direct damage cost of about 13.9 trillion yen in the Tohoku disaster-stricken areas. (2) The damage costs and benefits could be measured more accurately based on the economic theory by introducing the dynamic multiplier of damage costs and benefits into the conventional benefit measurement technique. (3) The forward-looking dynamic model, despite strict constraints and unrealistic assumptions, could show realistic results.

Time saving for emergency patient like as a case of heat stroke is eagerly anticipated especially in recent society of Japan. Though implementation new arterial high-standard road may make a considerable contribution, however in practical management, the way to evaluate in monetary terms such effects those related deeply with human life and health has not been established yet. One possible answer is to put the value of statistical one's life (VSL) into the benefit items, and in nowadays 226 million JPY is recommended by Cabinet Office in Japan nevertheless it has not been justified sufficiently. Therefore in this study, firstly we developed a theoretical model in which one tries to give an account of relationship between the research participants age and their WTP for the suggested hypothetical service that has an effect of mortality risk reduction, namely "option". Actually, WTP is option price itself in this context and perfectly proportional with VSL. Secondly, several types of WTP and VSL are proposed for each generation of the participant. These empirical outcomes show rather consistent with the propositions in theoretical conjecture. Either of WTP of 20s or 30s is the lowest value among generations, in contrast, WTP of over 60 is the firstly or secondly largest value among them nevertheless they might have been retired already and income effect worked not so much. The elderly people seem to be willing to pay more than younger ages to build more safety society. In both viewpoints of theoretical and empirical analysis, WTP and VSL evidently differ among age groups and income groups. We confidently conclude that as the degree of VSL depends heavily on the subject regional circumstances, e.g. economic level, population structure, and so on, sufficient and elaborate preliminary investigation is minimum requirements to road project evaluation. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Peer-review under responsibility of WORLD CONFERENCE ON TRANSPORT RESEARCH SOCIETY.

&nbsp;Countermeasures against sand beach erosion are carried out by combining various construction methods. These are measures against outflow of sand by artificial structures and waves, but not necessarily assuming global warming. This study aims to provide information necessary for considering adaptation policy to global warming, and we have calculated cost-effectiveness of the policy by using new data concerning impact on sand beach erosion and new estimation model on recreational value of sand beach. Here, some previous public works on sand beach preservation in each prefecture were investigated. The damage cost on recreational value due to sand beach erosion in each prefecture was estimated under the climate model MIROC and the scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. And the cost-effectiveness of adaptation policy was examined.

This study is intended to summarize some points for discussion on decision-making issues under uncertainty, and to apply some decision-making criteria to choice of climate stabilization policies in view of cost-benefit analysis with simulation analysis using the spatial dynamic optimization model.In the analysis of application of decision-making criteria to climate stabilization policy in the world, even if any criteria are adopted, the 650 ppm of CO₂ concentration scenario is selected.On the other hands, in Japan, though the 650 ppm of CO₂ concentration scenario is selected in most criteria, more pessimistic criteria make selection of more strict alternatives, the 550 ppm of CO₂ concentration scenario.

The purpose of this paper is to build the dynamic model in consideration of the catastrophe risk of global warming, and analyzed the character of the equilibrium solution by numerical analysis. As a result, existence of the catastrophe risk by greenhouse gas emissions has grasped the effects which it has on the long-run equilibrium solution in competitive economy and social optimum.