紅谷 昇平

南海トラフ地震のような周期性のある海溝型地震の特徴は，周期が長い内陸型の突発的な地震とは異なり，時間の経過とともにリスクが増加する漸増性である．2020年時点では30年以内の南海トラフ地震の発生確率は70-80％と公表されているが，このリスク情報を活用した，地域防災体制の計画・対策論は明らかでない．この計画・対策論を検討する基礎資料として，本研究では近畿圏を中心に地域防災体制のステークホルダーである，自治体，企業，住民それぞれのリスク漸増型災害への対策や意識を調査・分析した． 主催：京都大学防災研究所自然災害研究協議会; 日程：令和3年9月13日（月）13時00分～15時40分（終了予定）; 場所：Zoomによるオンライン開催 防災研究所共同研究・地域防災実践型共同研究

This study aimed to clarify the intentions for livelihoods recovery of tokyo residents in the assumed great tokyo earthquake by the web questionnaire survey and to propose a livelihood recovery model after a disaster. As a result, public supports to house reconstruction and rent subsidy were essential to prevent poputation outflow from damaged area. There were various opinions about the support programs for livelihoods recovery, therefore it was important to reach national consensus on the issue.

In spite of the large number of refugees, there will be the small number of shelters in the assumed Tonankai Nankai Earthquake. Some refugees will not be able to live in their home town. Therefore supra-regional evacuation or temporary relocation will be an efficient option for refugees. In this paper, we investigated questionary survey to the residents and the local governments to clarify the possibilities and conditions of supra-regional evacuation or temporary relocation in the assumed Tonankai Nankai Earthquake in the near future.