瀬古 美喜

This study analyzes the rent term premium for leases that can be cancelled by the lessee. We model the lessor's trade-off between leasing costs and the cost of cancellation options based on the recognition that many leases are cancellable by lessees, and lease markets involve significant transaction costs. We demonstrate that, regardless of the expected future rents, the rent term structure is upward-sloping when there is no leasing cost but U-shaped when the lessor faces moderate leasing costs. Residential leases in Japan, which are all cancellable by tenants, exhibit the term structure that is consistent with our calibrated model.

The destructive impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent tsunami on March 11, 2011 has enhanced consumer's earthquake preparedness even in unaffected areas. This paper uses unique survey data collected after the earthquake to study how consumers reacted to this catastrophic event. We find that self-reported, perceived preparedness for natural disasters has significantly improved even among low-income households after March 11, but that post-quake intentions for more specific risk mitigation activities were systematically associated with household income and wealth levels. Our results indicate that the recent events might have widened the gap in disaster preparedness between rich and poor.

This paper draws on six waves of Japanese household longitudinal data (Keio Household Panel Survey, KHPS) and estimates a conditional fixed effects logit model to investigate the effects of housing equity constraints and income shocks on own-to-own residential moves in Japan. By looking at contemporaneous extended Loan-to-Value (ELTV) and extended Debt-to-Income (EDTI) ratios under the recourse loan system, we examine whether housing equity constraints and negative income shocks have any impact on own-to-own residential moves. Taking account of the specific nature of the recourse loan system in Japan, we further investigate whether these effects are different between positive and negative equity households. The estimation results show that housing equity constraints and negative income shocks significantly deter own-to-own residential moves for positive equity households.