木村 玲欧

＜報告＞

We have developed a recovery and reconstruction calendar for clarifying the process that earthquake victims undergo in rebuilding their shattered lives. We have examined its reliability and stability and considered the generality of the process clarified by the proposed calendar. Concretely, based on results for the calendar in random surveys on the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake and the 2004 Mid-Niigata Prefecture Earthquake, we concluded that (1) the recovery and reconstruction calendar is highly reliable and stable in clarifying the recovery and reconstruction process and (2) generalization can be recognized in this process in time phases after disasters despite differences in disaster size and mode.

This paper is based on the results of research by the Sumatra Earthquake Interdisciplinary or Integrated Research Team, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University. This research shows: (1) the Sumatra Earthquake tsunami disaster damage in Banda Aceh can be divided into four areas; (2) the tsunami action was directed left and right by the Banda Aceh topography; (3) within which District I saw total destruction of housing, a high death rate, and the collapse of families; (4) with the high death rate due to a lack of earthquake-tsunami association; (5) that even in the core of housing reconstruction, the pace is slow; (6) there are four main obstacles to housing reconstruction; (7) the slow pace of the reconstruction is a function of social causes related to the size of the tsunami, the lack of established adjustment mechanisms for aid groups, the slow pace of the reconstruction in society overall, and the failure of market functions; (8) that in the case of large scale disasters, with the loss of life and home, as well as infrastructure, the collapse of society as an entity occurs as well.

<p>This paper discusses problem structures related to the time lag in the case that there is the interval between the Tokai-Tonankai eathquake and Nankai earthquake. First, the image of potendal time lag problerns in terms of the time flow after Tokai-Tonankai earthquake is shown. Second, the relationships between predicted eathquake intensities and population distribution are represented. Then the problems are arranged and examined for each separated area. Based on these discussions, problem structures due to the time lag are identified, Finally, through the individual specific problem examples associated with the time lag and hypothetical responses of local government officials, it is indicated that the time lag leads to various alternative preblems.</p>

<p>Risk management is consisted of 4 steps, 1) Risk Identification, 2) Risk Assessment, 3) Risk Control, 4) Risk Monitoring. Realizing the effective planning for risk management there is a need to develop the method of each step to be realized in the process of participatory strategic planning. The significance of this study is to develop simple and easy-to-use method for the first 2 steps. The 3 case studies were conducted in the groups of 1) the city administrators, 2) the university administrators, 3) the university students. In the result half of the risks those groups identified classified in the same quadrant with 2 axis; "internal−external cause" and ''ordinary-extraordinary event."</p>

<p>本研究は地震・防災専門家のファシリテーションによるワークショップによって，地域住民が主体となって地域防災力を向上させる試みについて紹介する．地域防災力向上のための手法化されたワークショップ事例がないため，はじめにワークショップの設計を行い，それに基づき4地域で3回ずつ1年間にわたって実施された．</p><p>ワークショップは各地域で3回行われた．第1回ワークショップでは地域の特徴と被害を航空写真に付箋紙で意見を書き込むことで地震に対するイメージを具象化し，第2回ワークショップては具体的な防災対策レシピを作成し，第3回ワークショップでは，「わたしたちの地域の行動計画」を策定した．またワークショップの評価測定も行い，質問紙による評価から，本研究が提案した防災カ向上手法は，参加者の防災意識の形成，地域防災カや必要な防災対策に関する理解を促進し，防災促動への参加意欲を高める手法であることを確認した．</p>

＜論説＞

We examined panel data (N=297) to evaluate changes in the victim's feeling of recovery after the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. Then, based on six-years data, we determined the transition pattern of the victim's feeling of the long-term life recovery. We classified the change in the victim's feeling of life recovery into four patterns: ++type, +type, -type, and --type.

<p>The purpose of this research clarifies Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake the victim's recovery by using the panel data(N=297).And,it was examined whether there was a constant pattern in the transition of the ife recovery feeling. As a result, the transition pattern of a long-term life recoveryl feeling afterwards of year sixth has been decided for the victim. And,it was clarified that the transition of victim's life recovery feeling divided into four patterns（+ + type，＋type，- type， - - type）.</p>

<p>被災経験がない市民には、非日常である災害を正確にイメージすることは難しい。長いあいだ大きな災害を経験していない地域の防災力向上には、過去の事例や他地域の事例から災害の実態・教訓を学び、災害文化を地域に継承することが必要である。</p><p>災害アーカイブは、未来の災害に備えるために災害・防災活動に関するさまざまな一次的資料を蓄積するだけではなく、一般図書や児童書・映像資料なども収集した資料室的な側面もあわせもつことが効果的である。このような考え方のもと、研究者のみならず地域市民や小中高校生、行政の防災担当者までもが学べる、災害・防災に関する各種資料を集積した「災害アーカイブ」を、東海地域の基幹大学である名古屋大学にて2003年4月から立ち上げている。</p><p>本報告では、市民防災教育のための災害アーカイブを立ちあげる過程について報告する。全国にある災害アーカイブ・資料室の先例を分析し、地域防災力向上のための災害アーカイブのあり方を提案した。現在は、市民の要望もあり、インターネットを通した検索システムも整備しており、項目・目次レベルでの言語検索が可能である。</p>

<p>We clarified the life reconstruction process for ten years after the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji (Kobe) Earthquake Disaster and examined the stability and reliability of indicators capable of objectively measuring reconstruction process through the analysis of the data from the social random sampled surveys, which were conducted in 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005. We found that; 1) although redeveloping destructed cities is progressing steadily in ten years, the impact of the disaster remains in local economy; 2) the victims with large house damage have not yet recovered well from the disaster in ten years; 3) the indicators can stably explain victims' and affected area's present conditions.</p>

Tsunami evacuation plannings have been built on "alert-evacuation" model, which assumes "tsunami alert -transmission -evacuation behavior" connection. Analyzing the data on the behavior of residents (n=1,710) in coastal area of Aichi prefecture after the tsunami warning on September 5, 2004, the results indicated that only a few residents evacuated despite their strong concerns on tsunami. This behavioral pattern results from the "empirical knowledge" which was gained by their past experience of not evacuating after a tsunami alert. In order to transform this knowledge, we need to build a new evacuation model based on the understandings of ambiguity which people face in disasters.

新潟豪雨水害，中越地震を事例に，高齢者の変化・課題，対応の実態について調査した。結果，介護保険の担い手としてケアマネジャーは，地域の要援護者に対する災害時支援に有効に機能する存在であった事が明らかとなった。しかし災害時の活動は，専門職としての高いモラルと献身に支えられた活動であり，災害時の負担増は顕著であるため，災害対応従事者も含んだ地域での災害時ケアの仕組みを福祉と防災の間で推進する必要がある。

＜論説＞

This rapid pace of aging in Japan implies that the number of elderly persons requiring special care will also increase rapidly at the time of disaster. A sure sign of this state was seen in two recent disasters that occurred in Japan, which received public attention as a social problem of the suffering of the elderly. In the 2004 Niigata Flood, 12 of the 15 fatalities were over 65 years old. The Mid-Niigata Prefecture Earthquake resulted in over 1000 elderly refugees, who needed nursing care, staying in emergency shelters. This study aims to gather basic data on the response to elderly people and to show the necessity of constructing the discipline of disaster management care, a systematic approach to the disaster process of elderly people under drastic social environmental changes. The major findings were as follows: 1. The care managers as the professionals licensed by the government-sponsored Long-Term Care Insurance System worked effectively to manage the needs of moving temporarily to care facilities, and 2. Thirteen percent of elderly people who moved to the care facilities as temporary shelters remained in the care facilities 6 months after the impact. These results suggest that care managers should be the more effective agents in responding to elderly people in disasters; however, they need the opportunity to learn about the disaster process of elderly people.

<p>We examined the effectiveness of Service Management Framework in designing counter operations in disaster victim support through the hands-on support activity for Ojiya city's victim certification after Niigata-ken Chuetsu Earthquake, Oct. 23, 2004. The service package and the Service Delivery System for the counter operation of victim certificate issuance was designed and implemented on the basis of Service Management Framework. As a result of customer satisfaction survey on Ojiya city and Kawaguchi town, a neighbouring town also affected in the event, it was clarified that the counter operation of Ojiya city was evaluated higher in terms of simplicity of the procedure by the victims than that of Kawaguchi town.</p>

<p>The purpose of this research is that it clarifies the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake victim's life recovery through panel data(N=364). The influence level that the respondent's information(attribute,house damage etc) gave to the life recovery feeling at the time of 2003 was examined.It was clarified that certain patterns were in the factor group that provided for the victim's life recovery eight years from the following result; two factor groups that life recovery feeling is predictable was derived in 1) 2001 (civic mindedness, civic engagement, mental and physical stress,2001job*house damage), 2) 2003(income, family cohesion).</p>

<p>The random sampled survey was designed to clarify the disaster process of victims in the 2004 Mid-Niigata Prefecture Earthquake. The findings of the survey were as follows: 1)About 70% of the respondents escaped to the outside of their home staying in cars, tents and garages on the day of the impact because of the terror of the aftershocks, 2) Almost 100% of the respondents tried to confirm the safety of somebody or/and something right after the impact, 3)According to the 'Reconstruction Calendar,' the majority of the victims thought their offices/schools had resumed, and the financial situation of households were getting better, while other items about housing, daily life had not been restored yet.</p>

＜論説＞

<p>Through the analysis of the data from the social rondam surveys, this study clarifies the patterns of victims' behaviors, which were changed at the points of 10, 100, and 1000 hours after the event occurred. 50% of the victims were sure that "the diffcult life would continue for the time being "and" they had the whole picture of the damage at that time" 10 hours after the event. 50% of the victims were sure that " they were completely safe, " "the" victims thought that "they were not disaster victims any more" after 1000 hours.</p>

<p>The current study aimed to develop and test models of life recovery, Based on reviews of preceding studies in Japan and US, the current paper constructed and compared eight different models of life recovery. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was applied to the data obtained by the 2003 Hyogo Prefecture Survey on disaster survivors (N=1203). A final SEM model provided causal chains of recovery promoting factors, recovery process and recovery outcome. Its research and practice implications were discussed.</p>

<p>This study is based on the analysis of two panel surveys conducted in the impacted area of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in 2001 and 2003. The results of the analysis clarified the secular change of the situation of the family budget 6 and 8 years after the earthquake. The major results of the panel surveys are as follows：①the degree of housing damage the respondents suffered was not the major determinant of the situation of family budget any more in the 2003 Survey, especially incomes and expenses，②the upturn in the family budget began from basic items of expenses to selective items of expenses, while the deterioration of living expenses did not have any obvious patterns.</p>

<p>Three types of life recovery patterns from disaster damages, that are, recovery back to what a life used to be (recovery), reconstruction of new active life styles (reconstruction), and retreat into a depressive state (retreat), were deduced from various disaster psychological findings, and also generated from the results of a preceding questionnaire survey. To examine the validity of the typology, a questionnaire survey was conducted in 2003 in the region hit by the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. The results showed that three types were differentiated clearly, and that the respondents were approximately distributed 70% for recovery, 20% for reconstruction, and 10% for retreat. The determinants and specific characteristics of these three types of victims were also investigated.</p>

<p>The seven elements model of socio-economic recovery from the Kobe Earthquake was formed as a result of the grass roots workshops in Kobe 5th year Assessment.This study examined the validity of the model by a questionnaire survey,2001 Kobe Panel Survey,with the follwing procedure:1)developing a scale measuring psychological assessment of life-restoration 2)searching the causality between the life-restoration scale and the seven elements of life recovery 3)building the general linear model of psychological life restoration determined on the seven elements model of socio-economic recovery from the Kobe Earthquake.</p>

<p>This paper showed 3 points;1)2001 Survey data replicated the all of the basic findings obtained for 1999 Survey to provide quantitative estimates for post-earthquake disaster responses;2)After the impact,33.2% of respondents were evacuated,and 41.9% of those moved to emergency shelters.At 100th and 1000th hours,around 20% of evacuees stayed at families'or relatives' houses.After several years,91.4% of respondents had already moved back to their own housmg,while 12.8% of evacuees stayed at private rental apartments and 5.1 % stayed at government-supplied free temporary housing; 3) it was within the first 150 hours that the information regarding housing and resettlement was sought especially by the elderly or victims whose houses were severely damaged.</p>